Capital Protection Certificate on Toyota and Kroger

US rates are still high, giving the opportunity to consider full capital protection structured products. The following instrument has only two stocks in the basket with participation coefficient 100% and no cap on the equity price growth in two or three years.

Companies represent auto manufacturers and consumer sectors. For Toyota Motor Corp the 10-year CAGR stands at 9.2%. Additionally, Toyota stock has delivered positive returns in 83% of rolling three-year periods over the last decade. For Kroger stock, the 10-year CAGR stands at 6.5%. In 75% of rolling three-year periods over the last decade, KR has delivered positive returns.

Toyota Motor Corp [Internal score 61/100] is the largest automobile manufacturer in Japan. Annual sales volumes are 10-11 million vehicles. More than 80% of the company’s vehicles are sold outside of Japan. Toyota’s primary and most profitable markets are North America, China, and Southeast Asia. Toyota’s share of the American automobile market is 12%. The company was one of the first to produce hybrid vehicles. Its lineup currently also includes electric vehicles.

Based on the recent financial report for the past quarter of 2026 revenue increased 10% y-o-y and amounted to $84 billion. It is expected that revenue for the next quarter will be on the same $84 billion level. EBITDA margin for the quarter was around 12% level. Net income exceeds $9.2 billion vs $5.8 billion for the same quarter in 2025.

The Kroger Co [Internal score 82/100] is one of the largest grocery supermarket and multi-format retailers in the United States. The company operates nearly 2,700 stores. Key drivers of the company are Delivery & Pickup (own e-commerce business), high margin alternative businesses like media platform KMP and financial services, and M&A in the sector. For example, Kroger announced plans to acquire regional grocery chain Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion (expected to close in 2027).

According to the recent financial report for the 2nd quarter of 2026 revenue increased 2% y-o-y and amounted to $34.6 billion. EBITDA margin for the quarter was around 5% level. Net income exceeds $653 million vs $690 million for the same quarter in 2025. Company was able to generate positive FCF equal to $167 million. Analysts forecast revenue for the 3rd quarter to be at the same $34.6 billion level, net income above $677 million.

US Treasury yields remain above 5%, making it a good time to lock in attractive capital-protected terms ahead of the Fed’s 28 October meeting. Kroger’s Investor Day on 20 October should give the market a clearer view of the savings from its new efficiency programme, while Toyota’s 5 November results follow a 38% jump in US electrified vehicle sales in September. Both events offer near-term opportunities for the market to reassess earnings prospects. With strong recent demand at Toyota and a new cost-cutting plan at Kroger, we see a good case for entering before these developments are fully reflected in share prices.